January 2022 Vol. 77 No. 1
Features
Factors Driving Bull Fiber Market
By Jeff Griffin, Senior Editor
The number of homes in the United States that connect to the internet with fiber optic cable is increasing and 5G is an important development. But many may be surprised what the FTTH (fiber to the home) growth data shows.
“There are about 25 million homes in the U.S. currently connected to fiber, and about 56 million passed by fiber (near enough to fiber to be connected),” said Michael Render of RVA. LLC, a market research firm that conducts surveys for the Fiber Broadband Association.
“One thing is clear,” said Render, “the growth in fiber to the home in the next five years will absolutely be the highest ever, and there is reasonable likelihood that the growth in just these five years will surpass all FTTH growth to date.”
Almost all network operators and internet service providers now finally recognize fiber is the best internet medium, said Render. Based on an RVA study of 4,000 U.S. and Canadian consumers, including speed and latency tests based on the survey, fiber clearly has the best performance.
The public wants fiber, Render said. RVA consumer studies show consumers want high-speed, highly reliable broadband which now is the third most important community attribute, close behind safe streets and affordable housing.
“Needless to say,” said Render, “the underground construction opportunities for fiber over the rest of this decade appear to be tremendous.”
Presentation
Render will expand on fiber/5G growth at the 2022 UCT Show next month. His keynote session – Fiber Construction Forecast: FTTP and 5G – will be presented at 8:30 a.m. in the Fort Worth Convention Center.
Render summarizes why fiber and 5G growth will continue and what this growth means:
“This performance advantage has become particularly important during the Covid pandemic with increased work from home and remote learning. Homes that have lower performing broadband often reported difficulties and had to ‘ration’ usage during important times of communication with some family members having to get offline to support those with the most important meetings or needs.”
In addition, the importance of better broadband has become even more significant to the average consumer, Render pointed out.
“In RVA consumer studies for the Fiber Broadband Association, telephone companies, in particular, that did not invest in fiber have faced significant broadband churn in addition to landline and video loss, and several ended in bankruptcy. Several bankruptcy filings of these companies specifically noted that a lack of fiber investment was a major cause of their failure.
“There are now more than 1,200 companies, large and small, deploying fiber in the US. These include telephone companies, cable companies, competitive providers, municipalities and rural electric coops. Many of them have publicly projected substantial FTTH builds,” Render observed.
“Likewise, many vendors of fiber and fiber equipment have noted increased interest and have said there now seems to be a ‘land grab’ with everyone trying to stake their claim by getting their fiber into a specific geographic area first. Even some cable MSOs, who currently enjoy the largest share of broadband customers are starting to overbuild with fiber. Besides the advantages of better customer attraction and low churn, the Fiber Broadband Association has produced a study showing that fiber offers the network operator more reliability and lower operating costs.
“In addition, existing government programs to increase rural fiber deployment such as the FCC Rural Digital Opportunity Fund (RBOC) and the new $65 billion broadband bill included in the recently passed infrastructure bill will increase deployment further. It is anticipated that funds from the new bill will be distributed to states for award to underserved areas. Not all of this will be fiber, as the bill allows speeds as low as 100 Mbps down and 20 up, but there will be preference given to fiber builds.
“Fiber is not the only technology for broadband, but without a major new technological discovery, fiber will remain the superior technology for decades to come,” Render stressed.
“Technologies such as low orbit satellites can provide some level of broadband, especially important in very remote areas, but come nowhere close in terms of meeting current and future needs. 5G wireless provides important mobile connections. but again, simply cannot compete with FTTH in terms of performance.” •
Fiber and Underground Construction
Within the general growth of fiber deployment, the percentage of fiber being placed underground is growing, except for rural electric coops which usually place fiber on their poles, said Michael Render of research firm RVA, LLC.
“Some states.” Render said, “will offer a particularly good opportunity for construction. Besides fiber to the home, the growth in 5G also is creating opportunity. The high number of 5G towers projected, placed closer together than traditional cell towers, is increasing rapidly. These small cell antennas usually are fed by fiber.
Most believe, he added, that there will be significant challenges to completing this work on time due to materials shortages, and labor constraints. The status of these challenges, and strategies to mitigate these problems will be discussed at Render’s UCT session.
“The silver lining for the underground construction industry,” he continued, “is that these pressures and constraints likely will increase margins for underground contractors.
“The well-informed contractor should be in position for an excellent decade of fiber opportunity.”
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